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NOT LOSING IS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN ENDING JINX
November 25th 2008 Looking back over Celtic's Champions League campaigns and the failure to win away from home, there are not too many games where you would have expected them to win. The Bhoys opponents have been Juventus, Porto, Rosenborg, Lyon, Anderlecht, Bayern Munich, Barcelona (twice), AC Milan (thrice), Shakhtar Donetsk (twice), Manchester United (twice), FC Copenhagen, Benfica (twice), Villarreal and Aalborg. Just looking at that list you would probably pick out Rosenborg, Anderlecht, FC Copenhagen and Aalborg as teams that Celtic should have had a good chance of beating away from home but they played poorly in the first three of those games and the final one comes tonight in Aalborg. If the Celts lose this game then they are out of Europe and the same applies to Aalborg so, will Gordon Strachan send his team out to play cautiously or will he go for glory? As far as staying in Europe is concerned the scenarios are; A no-score draw leaves it hanging on the results of the final games, with Celtic and Aalborg level on the head-to-head but the Bhoys with a two goal advantage in goal difference. A score draw tonight and the Danish Champions require a point more than Celtic from their final game. A win for either team and they are guaranteed European football after the New Year. Aalborg's management team know that realistically this home game against the third seeded team in the group represents their best chance of staying in Europe so maybe they will just go for it instead of being cagey. Gordon Strachan on the other hand knows that a draw or better still a score draw will leave his team in a strong position so I don't really think the 7/5 on offer for Celtic to win is great value. I don't like backing teams to win when they don't have to and if the Celts go a goal up or down then get back on level terms then I would expect them to try to hold that rather than go all out for a win. For anyone interested, Celtic are currently available at 13/8 on Betfair and let's not forget that two wins could fire the Bhoys into the last sixteen of the Champions League if Villarreal lose to Manchester United tonight and by two goals in their final group match in Glasgow. Odds of around 14/1 are available on Betfair for the Celts to reach the last sixteen but I can see it being a 0-0 between Villarreal and Man Utd tonight.
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